Republicans End 2023 Without Much Advantage Going Into the 2024 Election Cycle

End of the year insights before we enter the 2024 election cycle. Get the latest update here.

As 2023 comes to a close, here's the latest update from M+H Superior regarding the Republican efforts to maintain or expand their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024.

Currently, House Republicans hold 221 seats, with Democrats at 213. The GOP secured a narrow majority during the 2022 midterm elections. However, the removal of Rep. George Santos (R) has set the stage for a competitive contest in the upcoming special election for the NY-03 seat, which will likely attract significant campaign spending.

In the 2022 midterms, my predictions closely aligned with the final results, thanks partly to ongoing tracking of overall trends. That’s why I’m persisting in this endeavor to track generic ballot polling aggressively.

Leading up to the 2022 midterms, Republicans were tracking just below +0.5% on average. Despite media speculation of a "Red Wave," the outcome was a net gain of +9 Republican seats.

Sure enough, that’s precisely where Republicans stand right now.

Looking ahead to 2024, with a slim majority in the U.S. House and a general election on the horizon, gaining additional seats will pose a formidable challenge.

Before officially entering the 2024 election year, here is the current standing of the Republican advantage on the generic ballot:

Furthermore, here's the latest assessment of President Biden's approval versus disapproval. Despite trends observed in 2022, President Biden's numbers did not significantly impact the Democratic ticket down the ballot.

It's worth noting the number of representatives either running for another office or opting not to seek re-election, challenging the conventional power of incumbency.

Running for Another Office:

• AZ-03: Ruben Gallego (D) is running for a Senate seat

• CA-12: Barbara Lee (D) is running for a Senate seat

• CA-30: Adam Schiff (D) is running for a Senate seat

• CA-47: Katie Porter (D) is running for a Senate seat

• DE-AL: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) is running for a Senate seat

• IN-03: Jim Banks (R) is running for a Senate seat

• MD-06: David Trone (D) is running for a Senate seat

• MN-03: Dean Phillips (D) is running for president

• MI-07: Elissa Slotkin (D) is running for a Senate seat

• NC-08: Dan Bishop (R) is running for state attorney general

• NC-14: Jeff Jackson (D) is running for state attorney general

• NJ-03: Andy Kim (D) is running for a Senate seat

• TX-32: Colin Allred (D) is running for a Senate seat

• VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D) is running for governor in 2025

• WV-02: Alex Mooney (R) is running for a Senate seat

Retiring:

• AZ-08: Debbie Lesko (R)

• CA-16: Anna Eshoo (D)

• CA-29: Tony Cárdenas (D)

• CA-31: Grace Napolitano (D)

• CO-04: Ken Buck (R)

• IN-05: Victoria Spartz (R)

• MD-03: John Sarbanes (D)

• MI-08: Dan Kildee (D)

• OH-02: Brad Wenstrup (R)

• OR-03: Earl Blumenauer (D)

• TX-12: Kay Granger (R)

• TX-26: Michael Burgess (R)

• VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (D)

• WA-06: Derek Kilmer (D)

Nevertheless, there's optimism that Republicans can overcome internal challenges and navigate the political landscape effectively. 

The goal is to avoid the potential scenario of another four years of a Democratic presidency and the prospect of Democratic control across all branches of Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. 

Cheers to the hope for a course correction and a happy new year!