The Surf: July 28, 2023

Great political insights for the week of July 28, 2022. Get the latest update here.

My generic ballot tracking for the next election cycle is officially back!

Last cycle, I was nearly spot on with the ultimate results, partly due to overall tracking trends. For example, the Dobbs U.S. Supreme Court decision killed all momentum for the fall.

You can read more about those results from last fall's 'The Surf' update here:

https://www.mhsuperior.com/post/the-final-countdown

Here's the first version. Right now, Republicans are -2.2% down. With the small gains in the U.S. House of Representatives and negative gains in the U.S. Senate in the 2022 midterms, the Republican Party was only +0.3% on average one month out before the election.

While it's still VERY early, generic balloting is only starting to be tracked for next year.

So with that note, here's the latest chart to kick off the 2024 election season.